A cautionary tale...

There’s a wave of social posts lately touting the ROI of one media channel over another. You’ve seen them: “Channel X delivers an ROI of 5.60 vs. Channel Y at 3.50.” The implication is obvious — shift budget to Channel X, right?

Media owners are, of course, right to promote their offerings. But I wish they’d do so more carefully.  Perhaps these posts should come with a footnote: * your results may vary.

The truth is, ROI is a function of many decisions — and highly sensitive to context. These values aren’t stable enough to support bold claims without major caveats. The fine print matters: such results are valid only within the scope of the study, and may not hold true in your business environment.

ROI for any channel can vary based on:

• Spend level: In most channels, increasing spend decreases ROI (and vice versa), due to diminishing returns.

• Mix effects: ROI is not a fixed channel property. Change the mix, and each channel’s ROI shifts.

• In-channel tactics: Targeting, creative, timing — all affect outcomes. Some are captured in MMM models; some are not.

Even more importantly: ROI should not be your sole metric. A high-ROI channel that delivers little incremental volume may not help your business grow. Smart media planning balances financial with volume impacts.

ROI is best viewed not as a goal, but a constraint. The right question is: How do I maximize total incremental volume while staying within a viable ROI threshold? That answer usually lies in the mix — not a single channel.

And all of this assumes the underlying model is robust, validated, and comprehensive enough to rule out confounding effects.

So when you see bold ROI claims, take them with a generous pinch of salt. Don’t reallocate your budget based on someone else’s results. Instead, Find Out For Yourself (FOFY). Run simulations, explore marginal impacts, test different mixes. That’s how you make confident, context-specific decisions — and help ensure your results can vary in your favor.